@andrew_madonna GitLab legal counsel came to conclusion 2 as well when they looked into this back in 2018:
https://gitlab.com/meltano/meltano/-/issues/102#note_105621919
Since Meltano doesn't itself incorporate or depend on (as in: can't function without) AGPL source code, we're good. The fact that a user can make Meltano download and shell out to external AGPL source code is irrelevant, since it can be used to download and shell out to
any code, AGPL or not.